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Forecast Discussion for Buffalo, NY

000
FXUS61 KBUF 260249
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
949 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region bringing a mainly dry and
mild period of weather through Wednesday. Moisture looks to return
on the back side of the retreating high by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southwest winds continue to subside tonight with an occasional
gust to 25-30 mph. High pressure will move across the Ohio Valley
late tonight and winds will subside further.

A strong upper level jet will persist over the eastern Great Lakes
tonight. Mid-high level clouds will stream across most of the
region. The North Country and Lake Plains will likely see the most
clearing overnight. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s.

High pressure expanding across the area Monday will result in partly
to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue above normal with
most highs in the mid to upper 40s, but a decent westerly breeze
will make these temperatures feel a bit cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure initially over the Ohio Valley at the start of
Monday evening will slowly drift eastward and off the Mid Atlantic
coastline through Tuesday night...while maintaining quiet and dry
weather across our region. At the same time our temperatures will
also remain at well above late winter normals...with daytime highs
on Tuesday ranging from the mid to upper 40s across the North
Country to the lower to mid 50s south of Lake Ontario...and lows
in the mid 20s to lower 30s Monday night moderating into the 30s
areawide for Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Wednesday night a weak wave of low pressure over
Quebec will slide eastward into the Canadian Maritimes. As it does
so...this system will slide its attendant weak cold front southward
into our region on Wednesday...with this boundary then falling apart
over or near our region Wednesday night as its parent low slides
farther away from our region...and as a new (and more significant)
low pressure system organizes over Illinois. Compared to earlier
runs the latest guidance has trended a little more aggressive with
the southward push of this boundary on Wednesday...which could result
in a few light rain showers making it a little further south into
our region...and for which the slight chance/chance PoPs in play from
continuity have been expanded southward a bit. This said...any such
activity should still remain fairly light and scattered in nature
given the weak forcing accompanying the boundary. Whatever showers
there are should then quickly taper off during the first half of
Wednesday night...with a brief incursion of surface-based ridging
and drier air then providing us with dry conditions for the second
half of the night. Otherwise temperatures will remain well above
average...with highs on Wednesday ranging from around 50 across the
North Country to the mid to upper 50s across most areas south of
Lake Ontario...and lows falling back into the 30s Wednesday night.

Moving on into the last third of this period...our weather will
deteriorate again Thursday and Thursday night as sharp upper level
troughing over the upper Mississippi Valley closes off and pushes
eastward into Mid-Atlantic states. In the process...its initial
attendant surface low will slide eastward into the Ohio Valley and
weaken...while increasing DCVA on the front flank of the advancing
upper trough/closed low encourages the development of a secondary
surface low over the Mid-Atlantic States.

For our region...an occluding surface front associated with the
primary surface low will push northward toward our region from
the Ohio Valley on Thursday...before devolving somewhat into a
inverted surface trough Thursday night as the secondary surface
low rapidly strengthens and becomes more dominant. Increasing
Atlantic-based moisture and lift being transported up and over
this boundary will result in periods of rain developing across
areas south of Lake Ontario Thursday into Thursday evening...
then continuing through the rest of Thursday night...when some
wet snow may mix in late as the atmospheric column begins to cool.
Have thus retained higher-end categorical PoPs for this portion
of our area...albeit a little more slowly than before given the
slowing trend seen in the latest medium range guidance. A current
rough model/WPC QPF consensus shows the potential for a solid half
inch to an inch of mostly rainfall across areas south of Lake
Ontario during this time frame...with the 12z GFS (which has a
stronger system and initial low level jet) suggesting the potential
for as much as an inch and a half of rain. Given the rather wet
weather and saturated ground conditions of late this will need to
be watched...as heavier rainfall amounts noted above would likely
lead to some hydro concerns if actually realized.

Further to the north...the North Country will lie much closer to
the northern fringes of this system...along with correspondingly
lower precipitation potential and amounts. This said...this latter
area will also have a little better potential for a mix with/
changeover wet snow Thursday night as colder air should arrive
there sooner.

Otherwise...temperatures will remain at above average levels to
close out this period...with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
on Thursday again followed by lows ranging through the 30s Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tis the season for closed lows and their various related mid
latitude blocking patterns.

As we open this period on Friday...one such stacked storm system
will slowly push away off the Northeast coast. This will allow for
gradual improvement in our weather...but not before we experience
another wet day on Friday. The precipitation will then taper off to
mixed rain and snow showers Friday night and Saturday...as the
closed low will push further out to sea and ridging builds in from
the west.

As we push deeper into the weekend...the long lived closed low will
become part of Rex block over the North Atlantic...which in turn
will stall an amplifying ridge over the Lower Great Lakes. This
should set the stage for several days of dry...problem free weather
across our region from Sunday through the first part of the new
work week. Interestingly...this will likely lead to another Rex
block...this time over the Great Lakes region. These mid latitude
blocks are notorious for providing days of wet unsettled
conditions...but depending your location in relation to the
block...they can just as easily provide several days of fine weather.

While it will not be warm during this period...temperatures will
average a few degrees above early March normals.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Southwest winds will continue tonight and continue to diminish
tonight with gusts lowering to 20 kts by 6z. VFR conditions are
expected through tonight with mainly cirrus level cloudiness
streaming north from the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys gradually drifting
eastward, with clear skies from the southern Great Lakes shifting
into western New York.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR in widespread rain.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong area of low pressure near James Bay will continue track
northward tonight. This system will bring a round of high end
advisory-worthy conditions early tonight. A moderate westerly flow
will result in advisory conditions across eastern portions of Lake
Ontario into Monday morning.

High pressure will build across the lower Great Lakes late Monday
and Tuesday bringing improving conditions on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030-042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...TMA

NWS Buffalo, NY (BUF) Office Area Forecast Discussion

Discussion Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO Script by SE Lincoln Weather

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