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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
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Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 181243
SWODY1
SPC AC 181241

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are most likely over the
southern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening.

...Western SD to southern High Plains...
A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will reach the central
High Plains by early Sunday. A pair of surface cyclones in the Black
Hills and southern High Plains vicinities will anchor a gradually
eastward-moving lee trough. Western portion of a quasi-stationary
front along the Red River to west TX will attempt to advance north
into the TX Panhandle. 

As mid/upper-level height falls overspread the lee trough, scattered
to numerous storms will develop during mid afternoon to early
evening from the western Dakotas south into eastern NM. Deep-layer
shear profiles will generally be weak to the north of a belt of
moderate upper-level westerlies overspreading the southern High
Plains in the evening. Multicells should be common across western
SD/NE with a risk for isolated severe hail and wind. Farther south,
MCS development appears most likely from southeast CO/northeast NM
east-southeast across southwest KS and the Panhandles. This will be
aided by warm advection near the intersection of the lee trough/warm
front as low-level southerlies strengthen over west TX this evening.
A corridor of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg along with 25-35 kt
effective shear should support embedded supercell structures.
However, weaknesses in the 700-500 mb portion of the hodograph will
tend to foster more transient updraft rotation and predominant
cluster/linear mode. Hail up to golf balls and strong to isolated
severe wind gusts appear to be the primary threats.

...Southern VA and Carolinas...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the OH Valley will shift east
with a swath of strengthening 700-mb southwesterlies downstream
across southern VA and the Carolinas this afternoon. This enhanced
flow should be coincident with pockets of moderate buoyancy despite
poor mid/upper-level lapse rates. As scattered storms develop,
isolated strong wind gusts producing tree damage will be possible.

..Grams/Broyles.. 08/18/2018

$$
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