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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
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Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
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 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 231255
SPC AC 231253

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z


A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will likely affect the southern
Plains today and tonight.  Very limited risk for an elevated severe
storm or two may evolve over portions of central/northern Texas just
prior to -- but more likely after -- the end of the Day 1 period
(Saturday morning).

Some progression of the upper flow field over the U.S. will occur
this period, as the western U.S. trough advances out of the Great
Basin and across the Four Corners/southern Rockies through the
period.  Meanwhile, ridging will persist over the southeast U.S. and

At the surface, a baroclinic zone will be maintained from the
Tennessee Valley vicinity to Texas, focusing showers and
thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains through
the period.

...Parts of central/northern Texas into adjacent parts of far
southern Oklahoma...
A fairly widespread cluster of showers and thunderstorms will affect
central and northern Texas today, as the center of a short-wave
trough now crossing the Rio Grande (per the latest WV loop) shifts
northeast across the southern Plains.  In the wake of this feature,
after weak/brief short-wave ridging, large-scale height-falls are
forecast to commence -- particularly during the second half of the
period -- as the larger-scale western U.S. trough advances
into/across the Four Corners and southern Rockies.

As low-level warm advection increases across the southern Plains in
response, isentropic ascent atop a still-stable boundary layer will
eventually fuel development of elevated storms.  While most -- if
not all -- of this convective initiation will likely occur after the
end of the Day 1 period, a storm or two could develop during the
last 1-2 hours of the period over the central/northern Texas
vicinity.  Any such development would pose some risk for hail, given
steepening lapse rates aloft and strengthening mid-level flow --
both spreading eastward in conjunction with the advance of the main
upper system.  Therefore, will maintain the current/conditional 5%
risk for hail given the end-of-period potential for convective
initiation, though greater severe probability will evolve later
Saturday morning/afternoon.

..Goss/Marsh.. 02/23/2018

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