*** The Vicarage Weather Feed ***
Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 161921
SWODY1
SPC AC 161919

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...Discussion...
No change has been made to the previous outlook.

..Smith.. 11/16/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/

...Discussion...
Downstream of blocking within the mid-latitude westerlies over the
eastern Pacific, mid/upper flow across much of the U.S., while not
particularly amplified, appears likely to remain broadly confluent
and cyclonic.  

Strongest mid-level height falls, associated with a pair of vigorous
short wave perturbations within this regime, are in the process of
spreading from southeastern Canada and the Northeast toward the
northwestern Atlantic.  As this continues, an associated deepening
surface cyclone is forecast to migrate northeast of Cape Cod into
areas near/east of the Canadian Maritimes.  A cold front trailing
from this feature has already advanced well south/east of the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts, including the Florida Straits.

In the wake of the front, cold surface ridging remains a prominent
influence across much of the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region. 
While the center of this ridge may shift from the north central Gulf
coast into the vicinity of the central Appalachians by early
Saturday, a significant reinforcing cold intrusion is expected to
nose southeastward to the lee of the northern Rockies.  

In response to these developments, generally stable conditions will
prevail across the U.S., with negligible (less than 10 percent) risk
for thunderstorm activity.

...Northern New England coast...
Models do suggest that strong differential thermal advection and
forcing for ascent at mid-levels may contribute to a corridor of
weak destabilization near coastal Downeast Maine early this
afternoon.  Forecast soundings indicate that moist parcels
contributing to weak CAPE will be based near/above 700 mb, where
thermal profiles will generally be entirely below freezing, and the
risk for charge separation supportive of lightning appears
negligible.

...Northern Intermountain region/Rockies...
Beneath strong mid-level cooling, insolation may contribute to weak
boundary layer destabilization across the mountains of central Idaho
and Wyoming through the Black Hills vicinity by late this afternoon.
This may support scattered low-topped convective development, but
forecast soundings suggest that the potential for charge separation
supportive of lightning is negligible.

$$

This data is offered only as a general guide to local weather conditions. It should not be relied upon in lieu of officially disseminated weather information for determining possible risk to persons or property. This site, including all information contained therein, is made available as is without warranties of any kind, either express or implied. The Vicarage Weather Feed© includes links to other sites for user convenience only. The content of any linked third-party site is not controlled by The Vicarage Weather Feed©. Access to any third-party website through The Vicarage Weather Feed©, regardless of whether or not the third-party site is a linked site, is entirely at the users own risk. Externally sourced content or material is excluded from The Vicarage Weather Feed© copyright and is the copyright and property of the respective provider. Skywarn® and the Skywarn® logo are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, used with permission.