Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2019 Oct 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 15-Oct 17 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 15-Oct 17 2019

	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
00-03UT	3	2	2
03-06UT	3	1	1
06-09UT	2	1	1
09-12UT	2	1	1
12-15UT	1	1	1
15-18UT	1	1	1
18-21UT	1	2	2
21-00UT	1	2	2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2019

	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
S1 or greater	1%	1%	1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2019

	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
R1-R2	1%	1%	1%
R3 or greater	1%	1%	1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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NOTE: Clicking on any of the images below will take you to the source website for each image.

Real Time Images of the Sun

SOHO EIT 304

SOHO EIT 284

SDO/AIA Solar Image

Mauna Loa Solar Image

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind

Latest LASCO Solar Corona Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).

Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

Solar Cycle

Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.

F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Northern Hemi Auroral Map

Southern Hemi Auroral Map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

VHF and HF Band Conditions

Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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