Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Current Space Weather Overview

Graphs Showing Solar X-Ray & Solar Proton Flux

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Feb 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23-Feb 25 2024
Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25
00-03UT1.671.673.00
03-06UT1.331.332.00
06-09UT1.331.332.00
09-12UT1.331.333.33
12-15UT1.331.334.00
15-18UT1.331.334.67 (G1)
18-21UT1.671.674.00
21-00UT1.671.673.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 25 Feb with the arrival of a CME that left the sun on 21 Feb.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2024
Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25
S1 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storm will persist through 25 Feb primarily due to the potential of a significant event posed by AR 3590.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 22 2024 2234 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2024
Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25
R1-R260%60%60%
R3 or greater30%30%30%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 25 Feb due to the recent flare history of AR 3590 coupled with the anticipated return of old AR 3575.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 171
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 195
SOHO EIT 195 image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
SOHO EIT 304
SOHO EIT 304 image of the sun
 
SDO/HMI Continuum
SDO/HMI Continuum Image of the Sun
SDO/HMI Magnetogram
Latest SDO/HMI Magnetogram image of the Sun
LASCO C2
Latest LASCO C2 image of the Sun
LASCO C3
Latest LASCO C3 image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.



NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory

Solar Wind


Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast.

WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. Solar disturbances have long been known to disrupt communications, wreak havoc with geomagnetic systems, and to pose dangers for satellite operations.


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. The forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Prediction Panel has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025.


Auroral Activity Forecast


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Radio Communications Impact

D-Region Absorption

D-Region Absorption Prediction
Latest D-Region Absorption Prediction Model

The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.


VHF and HF Band Conditions





Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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